Observability, anomaly detection, and energy demand forecasting for smart grid analysis
Noureen, Subrina Sultana
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A multitude of advancements in the field of smart grids has added new features like bidirectional communication protocols with the center control unit to the existing power grids, which begets numerous security concerns to the generation and distribution level of smart grids. Thus, physical and cyber security threats along with, the weaknesses in the smart grid demands identification beforehand. An unparalleled flexible management system with intelligent officiating capabilities has no alternatives to ensure highly efficient energy management system for vitiated energy depletion. To achieve this goal, predicting the future energy requirement (i.e. load) is considered as one of the key features. This dissertation primarily focuses on analyzing various anomalies in a smart grid system by implementing a few machine learning techniques. Additionally, it proposes some improvement techniques for a higher accuracy rate for the energy demand forecasting. To examine different scenarios of physical and cyber anomalies, this work adopted the Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) data optimized with Binary Swarm algorithm from a simulated power grid system along with a real-time simulator system, which were added to the virtual PMUs to create the cyber-attacks. Furthermore, to detect malicious events, a novel approach was adopted by employing a Regression algorithm, along with, a Scikit-learn machine learning algorithm for clustering and capturing real-time data. Afterward, a synthetic data set was generated and fed for testing and verification purposes. A benchmark data set of the small-scale industrial load was taken into account for both “train and test” methods on monthly and yearly time-span data. Last, a comparative and elaborate study was employed between a time series analysis technique (ARIMA model) and a ML technique (Random Forest) for determining higher accuracy rate in regard to better forecasting energy demand.