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dc.creatorThomas, Matthew A.
dc.creatorLin, Ting
dc.date.accessioned2021-02-22T22:17:45Z
dc.date.available2021-02-22T22:17:45Z
dc.date.issued2020-02
dc.identifier.citationThomas, M.A. & Lin, T. (2020). Illustrative analysis of probabilistic sea level rise hazard. Journal of Climate, 33(4), 1523-1234. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0320.1en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0320.1
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2346/86870
dc.description© Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). For permission to reuse any portion of this work, please contact permissions@ametsoc.org. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 U.S. Code §?107) or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC § 108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center (https://www.copyright.com). Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (https://www.ametsoc.org/PUBSCopyrightPolicy).en_US
dc.description.abstractSea level rise results from several contributing physical processes, including ocean thermal expansion and glacier and ice sheet mass loss. Future projections of sea level remain highly uncertain due to several sources of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Quantifying different sources of sea level rise involves considering possible pathways of future radiative forcing and integrating models of different sea level rise processes. The probabilistic hazard analysis strategy has been proposed for combining sea level rise prediction models and climate forcing scenarios to examine sea level rise prediction uncertainty and the sources of this uncertainty. In this study we carry out an illustrative probabilistic sea level rise hazard analysis using ensembles of sea level rise predictions and emissions scenarios from the literature. This illustrative analysis allows us to estimate the probability that sea level rise will exceed a specified threshold at a given location and time and highlights how sea level rise uncertainty is sensitive to scenario inputs and sea level rise projection modeling choices. Probabilistic hazard is depicted for Earth using sea level rise hazard maps. We also demonstrate how hazard deaggregation can help us quantify the relative contributions of sea level rise sources, prediction models, and climate forcing scenarios to sea level rise hazard. The ice sheet contribution to sea level rise has a large impact on probabilistic projection of sea level rise due to the disagreements between current ice sheet models related to differences in modeling ice sheet instability.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.subjectSea Levelen_US
dc.subjectSensitivity Studiesen_US
dc.subjectBayesian Methodsen_US
dc.subjectProbability Forecasts/Models/Distributionen_US
dc.subjectEnsemblesen_US
dc.titleIllustrative Analysis of Probabilistic Sea Level Rise Hazarden_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.creator.orcid0000-0003-2650-8040en_US


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