System Dynamics Approach to Groundwater Storage Modeling for Basin-Scale Planning

A system dynamics approach to groundwater modeling suitable for groundwater management planning is presented for a basin-scale system. System dynamics techniques were used to develop a general model for estimating changes in net annual groundwater storage. This model framework was applied to two inland groundwater basins in California and tested against groundwater depletion data developed by the United States Geological Survey. Changes in net groundwater storage developed from these models were compared to values from numerical models provided by the United States Geological Survey. The basin-specific models were able to replicate changes in net annual groundwater storage volumes for 1-year and 5-year periods at a level suitable for planning, with R2 values ranging from 0.88 to 0.93. At the 10-year prediction period, R2 values ranged from 0.83 to 0.91. The results of this research illustrate that a system dynamics model using observed relationships between components may be capable of predicting behavior for the purposes of groundwater management planning.