The moderating effect of race on recidivism and its correlates

Youth are involved within the juvenile justice system, termed justice-involved youth (JIY), are at higher risk for long-term problems involving academics, employment, mental health, and incarceration than non-JIY. Of these JIY, those that recidivate create a significant burden upon themselves, their families, and the justice system in general. Racial minorities (e.g., Black and Hispanic JIY) are disproportionately represented in general and recidivating JIY populations. Moreover, several previously established risk factors (e.g., age at first offense [AFO], aggression, substance use, and trauma) have support to contribute and/or correlate with recidivism. However, it is unclear how race interacts with those supported JIY risk factors related to recidivism. This study aimed to investigate the moderating effects of race on the relationship between these established risk factors and JIY recidivism frequency. The study used data from 1,059 JIY incarcerated JIY within juvenile corrections centers throughout Texas. Five multivariate regression moderation models (e.g., Model 1a, Model 1b, Model 2, Model 3, Model 4) examined the effect that race (i.e., dummy-coded categorical moderator) had on the relationship between supported recidivism correlates (i.e., independent variables; e.g., X1 = aggression, X2 = substance use, X3= AFO, X4 = trauma) and recidivism frequency (i.e., Y, dependent variable). Main effects and interactions between the independent and moderator variables utilized SPSS Version 25. Results supported that AFO, aggression, and substance use had significant relationships to recidivism frequency. Race was not supported to be a significant moderator for any model, so simple slopes were not utilized. Implications of the study support that race does not moderate the relationship between certain recidivism correlates (e.g., aggression, substance use, AFO, and trauma history) and recidivism frequency. Limitations and future directions of the study are discussed.

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