Analysis of the effects of demographic and driver behavior variables on traffic safety and crash prediction
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Traffic safety is a major concern for transportation engineers. Motor vehicle crashes, in addition to severely diminishing the efficacy of a roadway, also significantly impact quality of life. Motor vehicle crashes are one of the major causes of injury and death in the United States, and although trends seem to indicate that crashes are decreasing annually, engineers must still be actively engaged in working to reduce the total number of crashes and to mitigate the severity of collisions. Researchers agree that the greatest contributing factor to motor vehicle crashes is human error. Humans, whether through inherent driving behaviors and cultural attitudes or through simple negligence, are prone to make mistakes that can have devastating effects on roadways. Extensive research has shown that various behaviors and attitudes significantly impact traffic safety, but a comprehensive understanding of the human component of the crash causation equation is limited. Therefore, the purpose of this dissertation is to address the lack of knowledge regarding how humans affect crashes and to indicate how the practice must evolve in order to reach the goal of zero roadway fatalities. This dissertation provides a comprehensive examination of the human impact on traffic safety, particularly on fatal crashes. First, demographic trends in the United States are examined to establish a basis for the human impact. Second, a binary logistic regression analysis is conducted to identify how different driver behavior and demographic factors lead to different crash types. Third, forecast models for those crash types are built using significant demographic and driver variables and historical data. Last, a glimpse at how human attitudes and ethics will affect the transportation system of the future is provided. This dissertation provides both a comprehensive and an analytical approach to understanding the complex relationship between drivers and traffic safety, particularly in regards to fatal crashes.