Statistical Learning of Political Conflict Dynamics

This study aims to delve deeper into the intricacies of political violence in Africa, with a particular emphasis on providing fresh and valuable insights into this com- plex phenomenon based on empirical findings. By highlighting the importance of analyzing micro-level factors and their interrelated components when studying po- litical violence, this research aims to lay the groundwork for further investigations in this area and offers valuable insights for policymakers and decision-makers seeking to develop effective approaches to tackle this problem. The research identifies a specific time frame around elections during which the like- lihood of violent episodes substantially increases, particularly within a four-month electoral cycle. This finding underscores the importance of understanding the inter- play between political processes and violent conflicts in the African context. Fur- thermore, the findings of this study shed light on how pre- and post-election periods in Africa experience political violence in different ways, highlighting the need for detailed analysis that takes into account the specific context and timing of such con- flicts. Moreover, the research uncovers the various factors that can influence the duration of domestic extremist conflicts in the continent, thus contributing to our understand- ing of the root causes and potential solutions to political violence in Africa. Specif- ically, the study identifies the number of attacks and deaths as crucial indicators of the severity of escalation or de-escalation in rebel-state conflicts. By providing a comprehensive analysis of these factors, the research sheds light on the underlying mechanisms that drive political violence in Africa.