Bringing the Ts and (N)Bs to the Table: Estimating Intersectional Candidate Gender Identity and Sexuality Effects on Vote Choice

Research has shown that LGBTQ+ candidates continue to face penalties at the ballot box, with particularly acute penalties for transgender candidates. However, the nuanced intersection of gender identity and sexual orientation has yet to be explored. Our project endeavors to do just that, by differentiating between transgender men, transgender women, and non-binary candidate gender identities, as well as including bisexual candidate sexual orientation. Our conjoint survey experiment finds, contrary to our expectations, that transgender women candidates do not face larger vote penalties than transgender men candidates, though candidates of either identity are more penalized than cisgender women and non-binary candidates. Also contrary to our expectations but in line with recent research, we find that bisexual men candidates (cis or transgender) are penalized more than bisexual women candidates (cis or transgender). Understanding the intersectionality of candidate gender identity and sexual orientation is critical for developing strategies to increase LGBTQ+ political representation.