A systems analysis of sustainable groundwater management in California: Homology and isomorphology with monetary policy

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2017-05

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Abstract

Systems analysis techniques were used to develop a structural model of groundwater systems based on the structure of monetary systems. The system dynamics models predict changes in groundwater storage for 1-year, 5-year and 10-year periods based on data from the preceding 10-years. The models were evaluated by comparing the predicted changes in groundwater storage to the values provided by the USGS. The models were subjected to structural, behavioral and policy tests to ensure validity, as well as statistical tests to evaluate predictive performance. The results of this research support the conclusion that a system dynamics groundwater model that is based on the structure of monetary policy may be a valid model of a groundwater system capable of producing behavior-over-time that is sufficient for the purposes of testing groundwater policy provided that it is an inland system with a simulation period of five years or less. The results do not support this conclusion for a coastal system or for a simulation period of ten years.
Exploratory research presents a methodology for assessing potential isomorphology between groundwater management policy and monetary policy using a system dynamics modeling approach. Based on this analysis, the structure of groundwater systems appears to be homologous to the structure of monetary systems. The structure of the non-coastal groundwater system is capable of reproducing observed behavior. However, the structure of the coastal groundwater system was not. The behavior of the non-coastal groundwater systems, which is based on the structure of a monetary system, produces behavior that is similar to the behavior observed in the United States monetary system under contractionary policy. Although this analysis cannot conclude that groundwater systems and monetary systems are isomorphic, it does provide support for this claim in non-coastal groundwater systems.

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Keywords

Groundwater management, Sustainability, Systems, California groundwater, Groundwater policy, Isomorphology

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