Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in Uzbekistan
Mitchell, Donna M
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Historically, Central Asia has been known for its abundance in water resources. Soviet policy exploited the vast water reserves from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers to support extensive monoculture crop production, leading to the desiccation of the Aral Sea. This region currently faces droughts and decreasing water supplies, which is exacerbated by outdated technology and inefficient irrigation schemes. Uzbekistan will likely depend on agricultural production to provide food security due to their abundance of labor and lack of capital. Agricultural production in the Aral Sea Basin can only be sustainable if the region can learn to adapt to the effects of climate change and improve their institutional structure and crop production efficiencies. This paper will estimate future fiber and food production using Uzbekistan as a case study by using a non-linear dynamic optimization model coupled with downscaled climate change projections to predict food production capabilities to the end of the century.