A Novel Hybrid Method for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Wind Probability Distribution Function and Machine Learning Models

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dc.creatorDhakal, Rabin (TTU)
dc.creatorSedai, Ashish (TTU)
dc.creatorPol, Suhas (TTU)
dc.creatorParameswaran, Siva (TTU)
dc.creatorNejat, Ali (TTU)
dc.creatorMoussa, Hanna (TTU)
dc.date.accessioned2023-03-28T19:24:50Z
dc.date.available2023-03-28T19:24:50Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description© 2022 by the authors. cc-by
dc.description.abstractThe need to deliver accurate predictions of renewable energy generation has long been recognized by stakeholders in the field and has propelled recent improvements in more precise wind speed prediction (WSP) methods. Models such as Weibull-probability-density-based WSP (WEB), Rayleigh-probability-density-based WSP (RYM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Kalman filter and support vector machines (SVR), artificial neural network (ANN), and hybrid models have been used for accurate prediction of wind speed with various forecast horizons. This study intends to incorporate all these methods to achieve a higher WSP accuracy as, thus far, hybrid wind speed predictions are mainly made by using multivariate time series data. To do so, an error correction algorithm for the probability-density-based wind speed prediction model is introduced. Moreover, a comparative analysis of the performance of each method for accurately predicting wind speed for each time step of short-term forecast horizons is performed. All the models studied are used to form the prediction model by optimizing the weight function for each time step of a forecast horizon for each model that contributed to forming the proposed hybrid prediction model. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and System Advisory Module (SAM) databases were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed models and conduct a comparative analysis. The results of the study show the significant improvement on the performance of wind speed prediction models through the development of a proposed hybrid prediction model.
dc.identifier.citationDhakal, R., Sedai, A., Pol, S., Parameswaran, S., Nejat, A., & Moussa, H.. 2022. A Novel Hybrid Method for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Wind Probability Distribution Function and Machine Learning Models. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 12(18). https://doi.org/10.3390/app12189038
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/app12189038
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2346/92013
dc.language.isoeng
dc.subjectforecasting
dc.subjectmachine learning
dc.subjectWeibull distribution
dc.subjectwind speed
dc.titleA Novel Hybrid Method for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Wind Probability Distribution Function and Machine Learning Models
dc.typeArticle

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